Using Poker Copilot’s "All-in Equity" Chart

What is “Equity Value”?

Imagine in a hand of No Limit Texas Hold’em you have AhQh and your opponent has KsKc. Your opponent raises to $10 and is all-in. You call the bet, making the pot $20.*

* (Assume for this example that you and your opponent posted the blinds, all other players folded, and that there is no rake.)

According to PokerZebra the probability you will win this is hand is 32.1%. If you replayed this hand thousands of times, over the long run you would win 32.1% of the time. Your equity value is how much you would be likely to win per hand if you replayed this hand thousands of times, each time from a random deck. Therefore your equity value is 32.1% * $20 = $6.42

The formula for equity value (also known as pot equity) is:

equity value = the probability you'll win * (the total pot, after the rake is removed)



What is “Equity Value Difference”?


If you win the hand, you’ll win $20. You’ll have exceeded your equity in the pot by $20 – $6.42 = $13.58. Your Equity Value Difference is -$13.58.

If you lose the hand, you’ll be $6.42 below your equity in the pot. Your Equity Value Difference is $6.42.

The formula for Equity Value Difference is:

Equity Value Difference =  your equity value - what you won 
= (the probability you'll win * the total pot, after the rake is removed) - what you won


Remember this: when you lose an all-in hand, you’ll have a positive equity value difference. When you win an all-in hand and exceed pot equity, you’ll have a negative equity value difference. The exceptions are when you had 0% equity or 100% equity, in which case your equity value difference will be zero.

How do I read the “All-in Equity” chart?

In the short run, the “All-in Equity” chart is a crude measure of luck. Did you have some bad luck in the current session? Then your “Total Winnings” will be below your “All-in Equity Value” line. Did you get some lucky breaks? Then the “Total Winnings” line will be above the “All-in Equity Value” line.

In the long run, the “All-in Equity” chart is a measure of how good your reads are when going all-in.

If, in the long run, you mostly go all-in when you have favourable equity, then your “Total Winnings” line will be above your “All-in Equity Value” line. You are tending to correctly guess what ranges of cards your opponents have, and are making all-in bets and calls wisely, based on those guesses.

If, in the long run, you mostly go all-in when you have unfavourable equity, then your “Total Winnings” line will be below your “All-in Equity Value” line. You need to be more selective in going all-in.

A good luck/good read “All-in Equity” chart:

good luck.png




A bad luck/bad read “All-in Equity” chart:

bad luck.png